水贝金价突然飙涨！黄金税收新政改写行业格局

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of new tax policies regarding gold trading in China has led to a significant increase in gold prices, particularly in the Shenzhen market, reflecting market reactions to the anticipated changes in taxation and compliance requirements [1][3]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy, effective from November 1, 2025, exempts value-added tax (VAT) on standard gold transactions for member units or clients through designated exchanges until December 31, 2027 [1]. - The policy distinguishes between "investment" and "non-investment" uses of gold, leading to structural impacts on different market participants [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, gold prices in Shenzhen surged from approximately 930 yuan per gram to 992 yuan per gram within a few hours, indicating immediate market response [1]. - Banks have begun adjusting their operations, with major institutions like ICBC and CCB halting various gold-related services due to increased demand and supply chain disruptions [2]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The new tax policy has made the tax burden on non-exchange channels explicit, leading to increased wholesale prices as merchants adjust to maintain profit margins [3][6]. - Anticipation of higher future costs has led to a short-term surge in demand as merchants stock up on gold before the policy takes effect, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [4]. Group 4: Compliance Costs - The new regulations impose additional compliance costs on non-exchange channels, including anti-money laundering requirements, which further increase the pricing pressure on gold [6]. - The combination of tax and compliance costs has significantly diminished the price advantage previously held by the Shenzhen market, making price increases inevitable [6]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment has been influenced by a strong upward trend in gold prices globally, with a year-to-date increase of over 52% in London spot gold prices, contributing to heightened expectations for further price increases [7].