妙可蓝多(600882)：新一轮产业趋势 盈利向上周期开启

Core Insights - The industry is expected to benefit from an optimized structure that enhances profitability, driven by the dual engines of BC and the trend of domestic substitution, leading to a "buy" rating [1] Supply and Demand Perspective - On the supply side, the environment for raw milk is anticipated to remain cost-effective, supporting the development of deep processing in the downstream dairy product industry; globally, there is a natural shift from liquid milk to solid dairy products [1] Competitive Landscape - The C-end cheese stick brand and channel improvements are driving market share growth; national standards and the pandemic have helped eliminate some low-quality brands, leading to a significant improvement in the competitive landscape compared to five years ago when cheese sticks were highly popular; the B-end is primarily dominated by foreign brands with a low domestic market share [1] Strategic Improvements - The strategic focus is on BC linkage and supply chain enhancements; cost-wise, low raw milk prices and domestic equipment/raw material substitution are expected to improve financial reports and strategies by 2025 [1] Long-term Growth Potential - The industry growth is assured due to increased per capita cheese consumption and penetration; market share growth is confirmed through C-end optimization and B-end breakthroughs; major players like Mengniu are enhancing management to improve competitiveness; profit margin optimization is expected from favorable C-end dynamics and B-end revenue expansion leading to cost scale effects and structural optimization; equity incentives are in place to ensure motivation [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast Adjustments - Based on the Q3 report, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted from 5.3/6.2/7.1 billion to 5.4/6.3/7.2 billion; net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted from 240/350/450 million to 240/320/430 million; EPS has been adjusted from 0.48/0.68/0.88 to 0.47/0.63/0.85; the closing price of 25.6 yuan on October 31, 2025, corresponds to PE ratios of 55/41/30 times [2]