沪铜暂时企稳 社会库存继续增加【11月3日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to ongoing supply tightness and high prices suppressing downstream demand, leading to a reaccumulation of social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Morning trading saw copper prices weakly running, with a slight recovery in the afternoon, closing up by 0.1% [1] - Domestic market electrolytic copper inventory reached 206,000 tons on November 3, an increase of 17,400 tons compared to October 27, and up 13,800 tons from October 30 [1] - The overall performance of downstream enterprises remains relatively weak due to high copper prices, which have limited procurement demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about copper supply have intensified due to frequent mining accidents this year and declining ore grades in old mines [1] - Last week, Glencore and Anglo American reported a decline in copper sales for the first nine months, contributing to ongoing worries about supply tightness [1] - Chile's copper production in September fell by 4.5% year-on-year to 456,663 tons, according to the Chilean National Statistics Institute [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicated that the domestic market remains slightly oversupplied, with future attention needed on whether overseas inventories will be reduced [1] - The outlook for copper prices is influenced by less optimistic expectations from US-China negotiations and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, leading to a price retreat [1] - Despite these factors, the macroeconomic drivers have not changed, and the tight supply background is expected to maintain high price fluctuations in the short term [1]