六氟磷酸锂月涨76%！天赐材料喜提卖方11月金股

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has seen a significant increase after three years of decline, driven by strong demand from the new energy and energy storage industries, alongside supply constraints and raw material price fluctuations [1][5]. Price Movement - Since the end of September, the spot price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose from 61,000 yuan/ton to 107,500 yuan/ton by the end of October, marking a monthly increase of 76% [1]. - The average price for lithium hexafluorophosphate in Q3 was 53,500 yuan/ton, while it increased to 80,300 yuan/ton by early November [4]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand from battery manufacturers has improved, leading to a rebound in prices for upstream materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate [3]. - The supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight until 2026, with potential for further price increases due to limited supply elasticity and cautious capacity expansion [5][6]. Company Performance and Outlook - Companies like Tianqi Materials (天赐材料) and others have regained institutional attention due to the price surge, with Tianqi Materials receiving a target price of 67.75 yuan, indicating nearly 70% upside potential from its current price [2][13]. - Tianqi Materials and other leading firms are expected to see a recovery in profitability, with projections for significant profit growth in 2025 and 2026 [13]. Market Concentration - The top three producers of lithium hexafluorophosphate—Tianqi Materials, Molybdenum (多氟多), and Tianji (天际股份)—hold over 66% of the market share, indicating increasing industry concentration [6]. - The effective production capacity for lithium hexafluorophosphate in China is projected to be around 370,000 tons per year in 2024, with limited new capacity expected in the short to medium term [6][8]. Stock Performance - Since the price rebound began in August, the stock prices of Tianqi Materials, Molybdenum, and Tianji have all more than doubled, with Tianji experiencing a remarkable 250% increase [14][15]. - The significant stock price increases reflect the market's positive outlook on the recovery of lithium hexafluorophosphate prices and the associated profitability of these companies [15].