Morgan Stanley First to Revise Oil Price Forecast After OPEC+ Update

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised its price forecast for Brent crude for 2026 to $60 per barrel from $57.50 following OPEC+'s decision to pause production hikes over the first three months of next year [1] - OPEC+'s decision to pause production hikes is seen as an acknowledgment of the fundamentals imbalance in the oil market, with uncertainty over the scale of the surplus depending on U.S. sanctions on Russian oil flows [3] - Investment banks have been revising their price predictions for international oil benchmarks downward after OPEC+ meetings, reflecting expectations of a supply overhang extending into 2026 [2] Group 2 - RBC Capital Markets highlighted Russia as a wild card due to U.S. sanctions affecting Russian crude imports and ongoing Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure, which could threaten supply security [4] - There is a cautious approach recommended due to uncertainty over the Q1 supply picture and anticipated demand softness, with recent Ukrainian attacks targeting oil export terminals [5]