长城基金汪立：新兴科技有望是本轮行情“中军主线”

Market Overview - In October, the Shanghai Composite Index showed a fluctuating upward trend, with major indices experiencing more declines than gains. The overall large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks, and value stocks outperformed growth stocks. Sectors such as coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals saw significant gains, while media, beauty care, and automotive sectors lagged behind. The average daily trading volume was 2.16 billion yuan, with margin trading remaining at 2.4 trillion yuan [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In October, the manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The decline in new export orders and production indices was less severe than in April, indicating that the market is gradually adapting to external changes. There is a need to boost domestic demand, and managing expectations may become a key focus of macroeconomic policy. Future macro policies may emphasize areas that are relatively "not hot," with potential for monetary easing through rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2] Trade Relations - The recent meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders yielded significant outcomes, marking a phase of easing in trade tensions. Both sides agreed to enhance cooperation in trade, energy, and cultural exchanges, and to maintain high-level communications. They also plan to suspend certain tariff measures and detail future cooperation. A trade agreement may be signed, with expectations for a visit by Trump to China in early 2026 [3] Investment Strategy - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by the outcomes of the 20th National Congress and progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. However, without major policy catalysts, the market may enter a phase of adjustment post-meeting. In the short term, fluctuations due to profit-taking, market sentiment, and corporate earnings may present good investment opportunities. Longer-term prospects remain positive due to declining risk-free rates, ample liquidity, and improving earnings expectations, suggesting potential for a "spring rally" [4] Investment Focus - As China's economic transformation accelerates and risk-free returns decline, the stock market shows sustained support. Emerging technologies are expected to be a central theme in the current market cycle, with a more diversified market outlook. Key areas to focus on include: 1) Technology growth sectors such as internet, TMT, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense; 2) New materials and cyclical products with improved market conditions, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and steel; 3) Financial sectors including brokerage, banking, and insurance; 4) Consumer goods towards the end of the year [5]