金晟富：11.3黄金冲高回落继续震荡！晚间黄金走势分析参考

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by various economic factors, particularly the impact of U.S. government shutdown and changes in China's tax policies on gold sales [1][2][5] - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound, reaching approximately $4026 per ounce after hitting a low of $3962, driven by a return of safe-haven investments amid concerns over the prolonged U.S. government shutdown [1][2] - The recent changes in China's tax policy, which eliminated long-term tax rebates for certain retailers, are expected to negatively affect demand in one of the largest gold markets [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data is anticipated to influence gold prices, with a forecast of 49.1; stronger-than-expected data could strengthen the dollar and suppress gold prices, while weaker data may lead to a rebound in gold [2][3] - The market currently expects a 69% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, down from 91.7% a week prior, indicating a shift in market sentiment regarding monetary policy [2][3] - Technical analysis suggests that gold is likely to face downward pressure, with key resistance levels identified around $4030-4035 and support levels at $3915-3885, indicating a bearish outlook for November [3][5][6]