WLY(SZ:000858) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-03 10:39Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye's third-quarter financial report reveals a significant decline in performance, highlighting the severe challenges faced by the company and the broader liquor industry during a period of deep adjustment [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q3, Wuliangye reported revenue of 8.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.66%, and a net profit of 2.019 billion yuan, down 65.62% [1]. - For the first three quarters, revenue was 60.945 billion yuan, a decline of 10.26%, with net profit at 21.511 billion yuan, down 13.72% [2]. - The company's contract liabilities dropped from 11.690 billion yuan at the end of Q2 to 9.268 billion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in dealer confidence [2]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Wuliangye's performance is part of a broader industry trend, with national liquor production down 9.9% year-on-year from January to September 2025 [3]. - Only 2 out of 20 listed liquor companies achieved slight growth, marking the end of a decade-long boom in the industry [3]. - The tightening of policies, such as the expanded ban on alcohol consumption in government settings, has further compressed the market for high-end liquor [3]. Pricing and Sales Challenges - Wuliangye's pricing structure has collapsed, with the retail price of its flagship product, the eighth generation Wuliangye, falling to 790 yuan, significantly below the factory price of 1,019 yuan [2]. - Dealers face theoretical losses of over 200 yuan for each bottle sold, complicating traditional sales models [2]. - The company has implemented emergency measures, including allowing dealers to fulfill sales targets without upfront payments, but these have led to further confusion and instability [3]. Strategic Responses - Wuliangye has introduced new products and expanded its online sales channels, achieving 100 million yuan in sales from a new low-alcohol product within two months [3]. - However, the company's strategic positioning remains unclear, with mixed signals affecting market confidence [3]. - Despite a substantial cash reserve of 138.5 billion yuan, the company's recent dividend announcement has been viewed skeptically as a move to stabilize stock prices rather than a sign of recovery [3]. Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is experiencing a shift from "scale expansion" to "brand value," with Wuliangye facing significant challenges in this transition [4]. - The company aims to develop a "second growth curve" through low-alcohol products and international expansion, but these efforts are hindered by the slow pace of international market penetration [4]. - Analysts predict a continued decline in net profit for Wuliangye over the next few years, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding a short-term recovery [4].