专访社科院王业强：房地产定位从“城镇化引擎”转向“民生基石”

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the historical transformation of real estate from being a "urbanization engine" to a "foundation of livelihood," highlighting its significance in the context of improving people's living standards and quality of life [2][4][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a shift in real estate policy focus towards enhancing the quality of housing and ensuring it meets the needs of residents, rather than merely expanding supply [4][6]. - The new policy framework includes five specific tasks aimed at high-quality development, including the construction of "good houses" and the establishment of a comprehensive safety management system for housing [1][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The real estate market has entered a phase dominated by existing stock, with a shift in housing supply policies from scale-oriented to quality-oriented, addressing the diverse needs of residents [2][6][7]. - Future housing supply policies will be tailored to the capabilities of different cities, with core cities likely to relax restrictions gradually, starting with suburban areas [2][7]. Group 3: Quality and Standards - The introduction of "good houses" as a new standard reflects the need for housing that meets safety, comfort, and sustainability criteria, responding to the evolving demands of various demographic groups [12][13]. - The emphasis on improving housing quality and property services is expected to lead to a more diversified supply system and upgraded product standards [12][13]. Group 4: Lifecycle Management and Safety - The establishment of a comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing is a significant step towards ensuring long-term safety and quality, addressing residents' urgent needs [14][15]. - This system aims to integrate management from design to operation, promoting a proactive approach to housing safety and risk prevention [14][15]. Group 5: Future Market Trends - The real estate market is anticipated to experience a contraction in total demand and supply, with a notable increase in demand for improved housing, particularly in high-capacity cities [15]. - The market is transitioning to a phase where second-hand housing transactions surpass new housing sales, indicating a focus on urban renewal and the optimization of existing stock [15].