中方刚下单4船美豆，美财长就放话威胁加税：不许在稀土上“出尔反尔”

Core Insights - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have highlighted a complex "trade game," with the U.S. government relieved by China's agreement to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans and to suspend rare earth export controls, indicating a slight thaw in relations [1][3] - However, underlying tensions remain, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's contradictory statements reveal a struggle between maintaining a tough stance and acknowledging rising economic costs [1][5] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - China has shown a willingness to cooperate by suspending new rare earth export controls and increasing agricultural purchases, indicating a desire for a win-win situation [3][10] - The U.S. response has been to overlook these gestures of goodwill, opting instead for threats and sanctions, which reflects deeper anxieties regarding rare earth supply chains [3][5] - The U.S. has not significantly improved its dependence on rare earths, despite claims of building a domestic industry within two years, revealing a gap in mining and processing technology [3][5] Group 2: Internal U.S. Conflicts - U.S. Secretary Yellen's dual role as a farmer and decision-maker complicates his position, as he must balance agricultural interests with national strategy, especially ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [5][7] - The U.S. government appears confused in its international strategy, attempting to form a "rare earth alliance" while simultaneously benefiting from globalization, which may lead to increased isolation [7][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The U.S.-China relationship has evolved into a stalemate, with both sides unable to fully "decouple" due to economic interdependence, suggesting that unilateral actions may lead to mutual losses [8][10] - Long-term consensus on trade issues can only be achieved through honest and equal cooperation, as threats and sanctions provide only temporary economic benefits without addressing structural problems [10]