彻底决裂？冯德莱恩表示：欧盟必须与乌、澳等国加强能源合作，改变过于依赖中方的现状

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is attempting to reduce its reliance on China for rare earth elements, particularly in light of the significant dependence on Chinese supplies, but the efforts may be more of a facade than a feasible strategy [1][10]. Group 1: EU's Dependence on China - The EU relies on China for 92% of its rare earth magnets and 98% of heavy rare earth supplies, indicating a near-monopoly situation [3][10]. - In 2024, global rare earth prices surged by 47%, heightening the EU's anxiety over its supply chain vulnerabilities [3]. Group 2: Efforts to Diversify Supply - The EU has signed agreements with Australia, which holds 30% of global rare earth reserves, but lacks processing facilities for heavy rare earths, necessitating reliance on China for refining [5][8]. - Kazakhstan has been targeted for investment, with the EU committing €200 million for technical assistance, but the country faces significant delays in obtaining mining permits and lacks advanced processing capabilities [7][8]. Group 3: Challenges in Alternative Sources - The rare earths from Kazakhstan would also require processing in China, undermining the EU's goal of direct supply [8][10]. - Ukraine's potential as a supplier is severely hampered by ongoing conflict, with current production levels at less than 15% of pre-war capacity, and funding delays from the EU further complicate the situation [8][12]. Group 4: China's Dominance in the Industry - China controls the entire rare earth supply chain, holding 76% of global patents related to rare earth extraction, making it difficult for the EU to establish independent processing capabilities without incurring significantly higher costs [10][12]. - Attempts by companies like Siemens to establish refining facilities in Europe have proven economically unviable, with costs being five times higher than importing from China [10]. Group 5: Consequences of a Complete Break - A complete severance from Chinese rare earth supplies could lead to a 40% drop in the EU's electric vehicle production capacity and significant delays in defense and green transition efforts [12].