抗流感药需求激增：市场“厮杀”升级，谁能抢占C位？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing risk of influenza transmission in China due to the overlap of the flu season and the peak travel period for outbound tourism, highlighting the importance of antiviral treatments and vaccination for public health [1][3][4]. Group 1: Influenza Overview - Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by influenza viruses, with seasonal outbreaks primarily from October to February in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - The flu season coincides with a peak in outbound tourism from China, which is expected to exceed 155 million trips by 2025, increasing the risk of global flu transmission [3]. Group 2: Antiviral Treatments - The current antiviral medications available in China include neuraminidase inhibitors, RNA polymerase inhibitors, and hemagglutinin inhibitors, with oseltamivir and baloxavir marboxil being the preferred treatments [1][6]. - The importance of initiating antiviral treatment within 48 hours of symptom onset is emphasized, as it significantly improves treatment outcomes [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Following the expiration of Roche's oseltamivir patent in 2016, there has been a surge in generic versions, leading to intense market competition, with nearly 140 related drug approvals in China [2][7]. - Baloxavir marboxil, a second-generation flu treatment, has gained market traction since its approval in 2021, with sales expected to exceed 1.5 billion yuan by 2024 [8][9]. Group 4: Market Growth Potential - The Chinese antiviral drug market for influenza was valued at 10.74 billion yuan in 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of 197.51% [9]. - Projections indicate a compound annual growth rate of 20.2% from 2024 to 2028, with the market potentially reaching 26.9 billion yuan by 2028 [9].