豪赌中国经济发展不行？美国财长：对美稀土筹码最多维持24个月

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-China trade conflict revolves around the competition for rare earth resources, with the US Treasury Secretary suggesting that China's leverage may last only 12 to 24 months due to its weakening manufacturing sector and reduced trade deficit with the US [1][7] - The US has been applying pressure on China's high-tech industries, particularly in the semiconductor sector, using "national security" as a pretext to strengthen sanctions against China [3][4] - China's response to US sanctions includes implementing rare earth export controls, which are critical for high-tech and military industries, highlighting the strategic importance of these resources [6][18] Group 2 - The belief that the G7 can form a mineral alliance to counter China's rare earth controls is overly optimistic, as the distribution of mineral resources and differing national interests complicate the establishment of a cohesive supply chain [11][15] - China's manufacturing sector is diversifying its export markets, and the changes in trade deficit with the US do not indicate a decline in China's manufacturing capabilities, which are evolving towards higher-end production [9][20] - The key to the rare earth industry is not just resource availability but the complex refining technology, which China dominates, holding over 90% of global refining capacity [13][15] Group 3 - The challenges faced by Western countries in reducing dependence on China include the need for significant investment in refining technology and compliance with strict environmental standards, which are often not feasible [15][20] - The US Treasury Secretary's assertion of a 24-month timeline for China's loss of leverage reflects a misunderstanding of the rare earth supply chain and China's technological strengths [18][20] - The ongoing trade conflict illustrates the importance of overall supply chain resilience and core technological control, with both the US and China leveraging their respective strengths in this complex landscape [18][20]