Core Viewpoint - China Modern Dairy Holdings Limited has announced a series of share purchase agreements to achieve strategic control over China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited, marking another business integration by Mengniu in the dairy sector following its previous moves in the milk powder and cheese segments [1][2]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - Modern Dairy has conditionally agreed to acquire approximately 1.28% of Shengmu's shares and gain irrevocable voting rights for about 24.90% of Shengmu's shares held by Mengniu's subsidiary, Start Great. This will result in Modern Dairy and its concerted parties exceeding 30% voting rights, triggering a mandatory conditional cash offer at HKD 0.35 per share, representing a 14.75% premium over Shengmu's last closing price of HKD 0.305 [2][3]. Company Profiles - Modern Dairy, established in September 2005 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November 2010, is a leading dairy cow operator and raw milk producer in China, operating 47 farms with approximately 472,000 dairy cows and an annual milk production exceeding 3 million tons as of June 2025 [2]. - Shengmu, founded in October 2009, is recognized as China's largest organic dairy company, operating 34 farms with a dairy cow population of 144,000 and an annual organic raw milk production of 600,000 tons [3]. Strategic Implications - The merger will create a combined livestock group of over 610,000 cows, with the proportion of specialty milk (including organic milk) in total production expected to increase from 8% to over 20%. This scale expansion will enable Modern Dairy to leverage production advantages for better procurement prices, thus achieving economies of scale and reducing unit costs [3][4]. - The acquisition is seen as a way to enhance operational management capabilities and production efficiency for Shengmu, with potential synergies in technology, digital management, and feed formulation [4]. Industry Context - Mengniu has been actively expanding its business through acquisitions, including Modern Dairy and Shengmu, as part of a broader strategy to streamline its supply chain and adjust its asset structure. This follows previous integrations in the milk powder and cheese sectors [5][8]. - The dairy industry in China has faced challenges, including overcapacity and declining milk prices since 2022, leading to significant revenue losses across the sector. The integration of Modern Dairy and Shengmu is expected to improve management efficiency and restore capital confidence as the market stabilizes [9][10]. Financial Performance - Recent financial reports indicate that both Modern Dairy and Shengmu have experienced fluctuating revenues and profits, with Modern Dairy's revenue for 2024 at approximately CNY 12.295 billion and Shengmu's at CNY 3.176 billion. However, both companies reported net losses in 2025 [10][11]. Market Outlook - The dairy market is anticipated to reach a supply-demand balance by the third quarter of 2025, with a notable reduction in dairy cow capacity and a potential stabilization of milk prices following a prolonged downturn [11][12].