ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT(SZ:300308) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-03 12:42Core Viewpoint - Nomura has significantly raised its earnings forecast for Zhongji Xuchuang for 2026-2027, driven by accelerated shipments of 1.6T optical modules and increased penetration of silicon photonics technology, positioning the company as a key beneficiary in the industry upcycle [1][6]. Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Nomura has increased revenue expectations for Zhongji Xuchuang by 44%-53% and net profit expectations by 64%-75% for 2026-2027 [1][6]. - The expected earnings per share for 2026 is projected at 20.41 yuan, with a valuation based on a 30x price-to-earnings ratio [1]. - The target price has been raised from 375 yuan to 612 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 27.5% from the current stock price [1]. Group 2: Q3 Performance - Zhongji Xuchuang reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 56.8% and a net profit growth of 125.0% in Q3, outperforming market expectations [3]. - The company achieved a significant improvement in gross margin, which increased by 9.2 percentage points to 42.8% [4]. Group 3: Product and Market Position - Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to lead the market with a 30%-35% share in the 800G segment and a 40%-45% share in the 1.6T segment [5]. - The demand for 800G and 1.6T products is strong, with NVIDIA GPU orders expected to accelerate the shipment of related transceiver products [5]. - The company has a significant advantage in silicon photonics technology, with a penetration rate expected to exceed 50%, which will continue to enhance gross margins [5]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Long-term Growth - Despite a short-term impact on earnings due to tight EML chip supply, the long-term growth outlook remains solid, with structural adjustments made to earnings forecasts [6]. - The company is focusing on next-generation technologies such as 3.2T transceivers and NPO/CPO, leveraging supply chain management advantages to strengthen its value chain position [5].