华尔街先知Yardeni："多头太多了"，技术指标显示美股或已透支

Core Viewpoint - Ed Yardeni, a prominent bull on Wall Street, has issued a rare warning about the U.S. stock market, suggesting that excessive optimism among investors has become a contrarian indicator, with the S&P 500 potentially retreating 5% from its peak by year-end [1][2]. Market Sentiment - Investor confidence has reached its highest level in a year, with the Investors Intelligence bull-bear ratio rising to 4.27, significantly surpassing the historical over-optimism threshold of 4.00 [3]. - Retail investors are also exhibiting strong confidence, as the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey shows bullish sentiment exceeding the historical average of 37.5% in five of the past seven weeks [6]. Technical Indicators - The S&P 500 index is currently 13% above its 200-day moving average, indicating a potential overextension of the rally [1][6]. - The Nasdaq 100 index is even more extreme, sitting 17% above its long-term support level, approaching the maximum gap level seen in July 2024, which previously led to a market sell-off [1][6]. Year-End Outlook - Despite maintaining a target of 7000 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, Yardeni anticipates a possible 5% decline from current highs by December [7]. - The focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's policy path as traders speculate on interest rate cuts, with upcoming speeches from Fed officials being closely monitored [8]. - Over half of the S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly earnings, with expectations for a 13% profit growth, nearly double the pre-season estimate of 7% [8].