经济学家打脸现场！特朗普关税成为何沦为“纸老虎”？

Core Insights - Concerns about inflation and recession due to tariffs have been overstated, as the U.S. economy continues to grow despite the implementation of significant tariffs [1] - Actual tariff revenue is expected to be significantly lower than initial forecasts, indicating that the impact of tariffs on businesses and consumers is less severe than anticipated [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Economy - The inflation rate in September was 3%, which, while above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, reflects a moderate impact from tariffs primarily affecting furniture and clothing prices [1] - The U.S. Treasury's customs and excise tax revenue is projected to reach $34 billion in October, leading to an annual estimate of $400 billion, which is much lower than the $500 billion to $1 trillion forecasted by the Treasury Secretary [1][2] Group 2: Corporate Strategies - Companies are diversifying their production lines to countries with lower tariffs, such as Vietnam, Mexico, and Turkey, which has contributed to a lower effective tax rate of approximately 12.5% compared to the nominal rate of 17% [2] - Businesses are stockpiling inventory before tariffs take effect to mitigate costs, with some companies utilizing bonded warehouses to defer tax payments [2] Group 3: Consumer Cost Absorption - U.S. consumers are currently bearing 50%-70% of the tariff costs, with companies absorbing the remainder due to higher profit margins post-pandemic [3] - Retailers can maintain profit margins at 2010s levels even if they absorb 30% of the tariff costs, indicating resilience in pricing strategies [4] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - In the automotive sector, manufacturers are estimated to absorb about 80% of the tariff costs, passing only 20% onto consumers, which reflects a cautious approach to pricing amid rising costs [4] - Apparel brands like Aritzia are facing significant tariffs but still maintain sufficient profitability to manage the impact, with pricing strategies not solely based on tariff costs [5]