美联储理事米兰：货币政策过于紧缩，需要一系列50个基点的降息！

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for significant interest rate cuts, arguing that current monetary policy is overly restrictive and that the neutral interest rate is much lower than the current policy rate [2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Miran emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's policy is too tight, suggesting that a series of 50 basis point cuts could reach the neutral rate without needing 75 basis points [2] - He has consistently opposed recent rate cuts, voting against the 25 basis point reductions in September and October, advocating instead for a 50 basis point cut [2] - Following a second consecutive month of a 25 basis point cut, the target range for the benchmark rate is now 3.75% to 4% [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - Miran points to recent pressures in the credit market as indicators of overly tight monetary policy, suggesting that these issues may reflect broader economic risks [3] - He argues that focusing too heavily on stock market performance and corporate credit strength can misrepresent the true stance of monetary policy [3] - The performance of interest-sensitive sectors, such as the housing market, and pressures in private credit markets indicate that current monetary policy may be contributing to economic downturn risks [3] Group 3: Independence Concerns - Miran's temporary appointment to the Federal Reserve, following his role as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, raises questions about his independence and potential influence from the Trump administration [4]