人口学家梁建章警告：如不尽早干预，40年后印度人口将是中国3倍

Core Insights - Liang Jianzhang emphasizes the urgent need for China to address its population issues, predicting that by 2063, India's population could be three times that of China's if current trends continue [1][11][12] Population Trends - In 2022, China's total population decreased by 850,000, marking the first natural decline since 1961, with a birth rate of 1.18 [2][4] - The downward trend continued in 2023, with a population reduction of 208,000, bringing the total to approximately 1.4 billion [2][4] - Projections for 2024 suggest a further decline, with the population potentially dropping below 1.4 billion by year-end [2] Labor Force and Aging Population - China's labor force is currently over 800 million, expected to decrease by 5 million by 2025 and potentially drop to 750 million by 2050 [4] - The proportion of individuals aged 60 and above is projected to reach 21.5% by 2024 and exceed 30% by 2035 [4][11] Factors Contributing to Low Birth Rates - High costs of child-rearing, including housing, education, and healthcare, are significant deterrents for young couples considering having children [4][5] - The legacy of the one-child policy has resulted in a skewed gender ratio, further complicating marriage and family formation [5] Comparison with India - As of 2023, India's population surpassed China's at 1.42 billion, with a projected growth to 1.44 billion in 2024 [7][9] - India's fertility rate, while declining, remains above China's, supported by cultural factors and less stringent population control measures [7][9] - The demographic structure in India, characterized by a high proportion of young people, provides a robust labor force [7][9] Economic Implications - The demographic shift poses risks to China's economic competitiveness, as labor shortages and rising wages may drive manufacturing and investment to countries like India and Vietnam [9][11] - The aging population and declining birth rates threaten the sustainability of social security systems and innovation capacity [11][12] Conclusion - The widening population gap between China and India presents a significant challenge for China's future economic and international standing, necessitating immediate policy interventions [1][11][12]