今日金价：4000大拐点已经突破，如不出所料，这周，金价这样走

Core Viewpoint - The gold price has surged past $4,000, reflecting a divided market where some investors are cashing out while others are buying in, driven by various economic indicators and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Market Dynamics - On October 30, gold prices rose by 2.45% in a single day, influenced by a drop in the U.S. core PCE to 3.7%, leading to intense speculation regarding Federal Reserve policies [3]. - The internal conflict within the Federal Reserve, characterized by contrasting views on interest rate cuts, has contributed to significant fluctuations in the dollar index and gold prices [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, have acted as catalysts for gold's price increase, with the VIX index rising by 23% in October [3]. Central Bank Activity - As of September, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months, with global central bank purchases reaching 800 tons in the first three quarters of the year, a 14% year-on-year increase [4]. - Despite some central banks like the Philippines reducing their gold holdings, global gold demand surged by 45% to $132 billion in Q2, indicating a shift in central bank strategies [4]. Technical Analysis - As of November 3, gold prices are facing a critical resistance level at $4,030 and strong support at $3,960, suggesting potential volatility in the market [6]. - The trading volume for Shanghai gold futures surged by 18% on November 1, indicating heightened market activity and potential for continued price movements [6]. - Institutional perspectives are divided, with Goldman Sachs raising its gold price target to $5,000, while Morgan Stanley warns of excessive speculative positions [6]. Trading Structure Changes - The proportion of algorithmic trading in gold has increased from 25% in 2020 to 42%, leading to faster price reactions to market news [7]. - The premium for gold jewelry has risen to 15%, significantly above the historical average of 8%, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [7]. Inflation and Economic Indicators - The current inflation environment, with the U.S. core CPI at 3.3%, supports gold as a hedge against inflation, as it avoids aggressive rate hikes while maintaining demand [9]. - Different market participants are adopting varied strategies, with some mining companies increasing their hedging ratios in response to current price levels [9]. Market Sentiment and Supply Chain - The correlation between gold and traditional assets like U.S. stocks and bonds has weakened, making gold an "anomaly" in asset allocation [11]. - There are signs of tightening in the physical gold supply chain, with some retailers experiencing stock shortages, driven by increased consumer demand during promotional events [11]. Pricing Mechanism Evolution - The historical negative correlation between the dollar index and gold prices has been disrupted, suggesting a shift in the factors driving gold prices towards credit risk hedging [13]. - The increase in open interest in gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange by 5.2% contrasts with a 3.1% decrease in Shanghai, highlighting differing market perceptions [13].