大家要有心理准备，这周起，新一轮风暴正在形成

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced significant volatility in October, with prices reaching a historical high of $4,381 per ounce before plummeting nearly $600 to around $3,950 within two weeks. As of November 3, spot gold prices had declined for the second consecutive week, settling at $4,002.2 per ounce, yet 50% of retail investors remained bullish on the upcoming week [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Influences - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% was expected to benefit gold prices, but subsequent hawkish comments from Chairman Powell dampened market expectations for further easing [3]. - Historical data shows that since 2000, gold prices have risen on the first trading day after 20 out of 32 rate cuts, but this time the market reacted differently due to concerns over the independence of monetary policy and the sustainability of U.S. fiscal deficits [3]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and escalating Middle Eastern conflicts were anticipated to enhance gold's safe-haven appeal, yet the market response was contrary, with prices declining during a period of heightened geopolitical risk [5]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives and Central Bank Actions - Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio suggested that investors allocate about 15% of their assets to gold, indicating a reassessment of gold's value as a wealth preservation tool [5]. - Central bank purchases have become a stable support for the gold market, with global central banks net buying 800 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, and the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months [5]. - The World Gold Council projected that global central bank gold purchases would reach a record 1,045 tons in 2024, with emerging market central banks continuing to increase gold's share in their reserves to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - From a technical analysis perspective, gold prices are at a critical juncture, having broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with support around $3,930 and resistance between $3,990 and $4,000 [7]. - Market sentiment is divided, with 50% of retail investors predicting a rise in gold prices next week, contrasting with institutional behavior that saw a record outflow of $7.5 billion from gold funds in a single week [7]. - Recent price movements have been characterized as a "technical correction," with the market having been overbought following a parabolic rise, leading to a sharp decline in prices [7]. Group 4: Gold's Evolving Role - Gold's traditional role is being redefined, serving as a hedge against declines in other assets, with a suggested allocation of 50% in portfolios to enhance risk resilience [7]. - The correlation between gold price increases and the cumulative rise in U.S. CPI over the past 20 years stands at 0.72, indicating gold's effectiveness as an inflation hedge [7]. - However, increased volatility in gold prices since 2025, with weekly fluctuations exceeding $80, suggests that while gold remains a safe-haven asset, it also poses volatility risks for ordinary investors [9].