我国再抛美债825亿，降至14年来新低，美债有暴雷的风险吗？

Core Viewpoint - China continues to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with the latest data showing a decrease of $11.3 billion in June, bringing the total to $835.4 billion, the lowest level in nearly 14 years [1][12]. Group 1: Reasons for Reducing U.S. Treasury Holdings - The primary concern driving China's reduction of U.S. Treasury bonds is the fear of default risk associated with U.S. debt, which has reached $32.659 trillion, exceeding the U.S. GDP of $25.45 trillion in 2022 [5][12]. - The reduction is also aimed at optimizing China's foreign exchange reserves, which have historically been heavily weighted towards U.S. dollar assets, constituting about 70% of reserves [8][12]. - By selling off U.S. Treasuries and increasing holdings in gold and other currencies, China seeks to diversify its risk and mitigate potential losses from a significant depreciation of the dollar [8][12]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Countries - In contrast to China, Japan's approach to U.S. Treasury holdings has been inconsistent, with fluctuations in buying and selling influenced by political considerations and currency stabilization efforts [9]. - Japan's recent actions include increasing holdings by $39.3 billion in April, reducing by $30.4 billion in May, and then increasing again by $8.8 billion in June, reflecting a more reactive strategy compared to China's systematic reduction [9]. Group 3: Implications of Collective Selling - The likelihood of a "blow-up" in the U.S. Treasury market due to collective selling by countries like China is considered low in the short term, as the total U.S. debt is significantly larger than China's holdings [11][12]. - Even if China were to sell all its U.S. Treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions would likely absorb the impact, preventing systemic risk [11]. - The U.S. economy, with a GDP of $25.45 trillion, retains the capacity to manage its debt through exports and technological advancements, further reducing the risk of a debt crisis [11][12].