中国一口气吞下全球九成增量囤油，油价被稳住，中国在为哪场大考抢时间？

Core Viewpoint - China is accelerating its oil stockpiling, with average daily imports exceeding 11 million barrels in the first nine months, leading to a reserve duration of approximately 180 days, which has stabilized international oil prices around $65 per barrel [1][3][5] Group 1: Oil Import and Stockpiling Strategy - Since March, China's average daily oil stockpiling has reached about 1.4 million barrels, marking the highest speed in recent years [3] - By September, customs data showed that daily imports remained steady at over 11 million barrels, with approximately 1 to 1.2 million barrels going directly into storage rather than refineries [3][5] - China's strategic oil reserves are nearing 2 billion barrels, with a utilization rate of about 60%, and an additional 12.4 million barrels of capacity expected to be added by the end of the year [5][11] Group 2: Market Impact and Price Stability - The recent stockpiling has altered market dynamics, preventing oil prices from continuing to decline despite a drop to near five-year lows in October [5][9] - The International Energy Agency estimates a global daily supply surplus of about 3.7 million barrels for the current quarter, while OPEC and its allies plan a slight production increase [5][9] - Analysts suggest that if China were to halt its purchases, oil prices could drop to just above $50 per barrel, indicating the market's sensitivity to China's marginal demand [7] Group 3: Energy Security and Policy Implications - China's energy policy emphasizes the need for self-sufficiency, with the implementation of the Energy Law mandating stockpiling as a necessity rather than an option [9][11] - The current oil stockpiling strategy is seen as a hedge against currency fluctuations and supply disruptions, reinforcing the importance of oil as a safety net [9][11] - Comparisons with other countries highlight the strategic importance of oil reserves, with the U.S. facing slow progress in replenishing its emergency oil reserves [11][13] Group 4: Future Outlook and Energy Transition - The long-term energy structure in China is expected to see a decrease in coal, stability in oil and gas, and an increase in renewable energy, indicating a balanced approach to energy security and transition [13] - The ongoing stockpiling is not merely speculative but aims to provide certainty against potential global disruptions, with the focus on both capacity and pricing [13]