Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-03 19:06Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has been rising recently due to unexpected demand and accelerated inventory depletion, indicating a potential recovery in the lithium carbonate industry after a challenging period [1][2][6]. Price Trends - Since mid-October, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures has increased from 72,000 yuan/ton to 82,280 yuan/ton, marking a rise of over 10,000 yuan/ton in just over half a month, with a percentage increase of 14% [2][3]. - The price of lithium carbonate had previously dropped to as low as 50,000 yuan/ton due to significant capacity expansion, but recent market dynamics have led to a rebound [2][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply-demand situation remains tight, with a notable increase in downstream purchasing activity and a reduction in inventory levels [3][4]. - In October, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 6% month-on-month and 55% year-on-year, maintaining a high operating rate among lithium carbonate refineries [4][6]. Market Influences - The anticipated resumption of production at the Jiangxia Mine has introduced volatility in lithium carbonate prices, with recent rumors causing a temporary price drop of 3.14% [4][7]. - The strong demand from the new energy power battery and energy storage markets is a significant driver of the current price rebound, alongside expectations of winter production cuts from salt lakes [2][4]. Industry Outlook - Major lithium companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have reported significant profit increases, indicating a recovery in the industry [6]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to surge, with projections indicating that by the third quarter of 2025, global lithium battery energy storage installations will exceed 170 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 68% [6]. - Analysts predict that lithium carbonate prices may continue to rise, with short-term resistance levels between 85,000 and 86,000 yuan/ton, and a potential long-term price target exceeding 90,000 yuan/ton [6][7].