Core Viewpoint - The new tax regulations on gold trading, effective from November 1, 2025, are expected to impact both the gold jewelry market and gold prices, with potential cost increases for consumers and changes in purchasing behavior [1][2]. Tax Policy Changes - The announcement specifies a reduction in the input tax deduction for non-investment gold jewelry from 13% to 6%, leading to increased costs for jewelry manufacturers [2][3]. - For investment gold sales, member units will benefit from tax exemptions, maintaining the existing tax refund policy for investment purposes [2][3]. Impact on Gold Prices - Short-term effects may include a rise in gold prices, which could suppress physical demand, while long-term effects may enhance the financial attributes of gold investments [1][3]. - The price of gold jewelry is expected to increase due to the higher tax burden on manufacturers, with specific price hikes already observed in the market [3][5]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, stocks related to gold retail experienced significant declines, indicating market apprehension regarding the new tax regulations [5]. - Major jewelry brands have already adjusted their prices upward, reflecting the anticipated cost increases due to the new tax policy [3][5]. Changes in Consumer Behavior - The new regulations may shift consumer purchasing patterns, with a potential move from jewelry to investment gold bars, as consumers seek to benefit from tax exemptions available through trading platforms [6][7]. - Consumers are likely to become more discerning about their purchasing channels, favoring transactions through exchanges to take advantage of tax benefits [7]. Global Market Implications - The tax changes in China, the largest gold consumer, are expected to affect global market sentiment, potentially leading to structural price changes in gold [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that a more transparent and regulated gold market in China could enhance its influence on global pricing mechanisms [10].