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Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility on November 3, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 5% and Ethereum falling close to 9%, breaking the critical support level of $3600 [2][6] - As of the report, Bitcoin was down over 3% at $106,442 million, while Ethereum was down nearly 7% at $3588 million [3] - Other cryptocurrencies such as SOL, XRP, BNB, and Dogecoin also saw declines exceeding 8% [2][3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Daly indicated that previous support for interest rate cuts was appropriate, suggesting a more favorable position for the Fed after a 50 basis point cut this year [6] - Fed Governor Milan expressed that the current policy is overly restrictive and that the neutral policy rate is significantly lower than current levels [6] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 67.3%, with a cumulative cut of 50 basis points by January having a probability of 22.3% [6] Ethereum ETF Performance - Matrixport reported that Ethereum ETFs have shown lackluster performance recently, with net inflows dropping from $5.2 billion in July to $600 million in October [6] - A continued lack of new capital inflow could lead to a more significant correction in Ethereum's price [6] Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases, contributing to rising international oil prices due to changing supply expectations [11][12] - Analysts noted that potential military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela could disrupt 900,000 barrels per day of oil supply [12] - The decision to pause production aligns with OPEC+'s strategy to adjust capacity based on market conditions, especially as the first quarter of the year is typically a seasonal demand lull [12][13] Geopolitical Factors and Oil Prices - Recent geopolitical risks, including tensions in Venezuela and U.S. sanctions on Russia, have influenced oil price movements, with prices rebounding due to these factors [13][14] - Despite short-term price increases, analysts predict long-term downward pressure on oil prices due to expected oversupply and weakening global economic growth [14]