【国际经济观察】别指望中美相争会有“渔翁”得利

Group 1 - The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States in Busan, South Korea, has injected much-needed certainty into the often turbulent bilateral relationship, emphasizing mutual prosperity and cooperation [2] - The essence of China-U.S. economic relations is mutual benefit rather than a zero-sum game, with historical trade figures showing a significant increase from under $2.5 billion in 1979 to nearly $68.83 billion in 2024 [2] - The imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. earlier this year led to a near halt in bilateral trade, resulting in rising prices for American consumers and increased supply chain costs for U.S. businesses [2] Group 2 - Historical evidence suggests that trade wars yield no winners, as seen during the Great Depression, with ongoing trade conflicts lowering global economic growth expectations [3] - The interconnectedness of global supply chains means that disruptions in U.S.-China relations can have far-reaching effects, impacting third-party countries that may hope to benefit from the situation [3] - The complexity of global supply chains makes the idea of third parties profiting from U.S.-China tensions unrealistic, as any short-term gains are often offset by larger economic losses [3] Group 3 - Healthy and stable China-U.S. relations depend on rational recognition of shared interests and pragmatic management of differences, with recent discussions leading to a preliminary consensus on tariff issues [4] - Economic cooperation should serve as a stabilizing force in China-U.S. relations, focusing on long-term benefits rather than falling into a cycle of retaliation [4] - The absence of cooperation between China and the U.S. could hinder the resolution of global challenges such as economic recovery, climate change, and public health crises [4]