“纳指连涨7个月”、“Mag 7独涨”，投资者似乎坚信美股只会上涨？“最乐观的人”开始担心了

Core Viewpoint - Despite entering a traditionally strong month for U.S. stocks, the divergence in market performance is causing concern among even the most optimistic investors on Wall Street [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Divergence - Amazon signed a $38 billion computing power agreement with OpenAI, leading to a 4% increase in Amazon's stock and a 1.2% rise in the "Tech Seven" index [1] - The ISM manufacturing data released on Monday was disappointing, resulting in a market characterized by strong tech stocks but weak performance in other sectors [1] - Over 300 companies in the S&P 500 index declined, while the Dow Jones and small-cap indices also fell [1] Group 2: Market Breadth Concerns - The Nasdaq index has risen nearly 40% since April, but this growth appears to be driven primarily by a few tech giants [2] - A key indicator of market health, "market breadth," is currently signaling warning signs [2] - The S&P 500 index is rising while its equal-weight counterpart is declining, indicating that the gains are concentrated among a few large-cap stocks [4] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Warnings - Ed Yardeni, a prominent bull on Wall Street, has issued a rare warning that excessive optimism among investors may serve as a contrarian indicator [5] - The S&P 500 index has surged 37% since early April, a level of increase seen only five times since 1950 [5] - Technical indicators suggest that the S&P 500 is currently 13% above its 200-day moving average, indicating potential overextension [5] Group 4: Future Outlook and Historical Context - Historical data supports bullish sentiment, as the S&P 500 has averaged a 2.6% increase in November following a year-to-date gain of over 10% by the end of October [9] - Analysts suggest that while recent gains may face short-term digestion, stock prices are expected to continue rising before year-end [9] - Some analysts caution that the strong performance over the past six months may have led to some gains being "pulled forward" [9]