牧原股份(002714)：主营业务稳健发展 养殖成本持续优化

Core Viewpoint - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.779 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.01%. However, in Q3 2025, revenue decreased by 11.48% to 35.327 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 55.98% to 4.249 billion yuan [1]. Business Performance - The company's main business remains stable, with a total of 57.323 million pigs sold from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.0%. The company has reduced its breeding sow inventory to 3.305 million by the end of Q3 in response to national capacity control measures [2]. - Despite a slight increase in feed prices, the company's production performance and management improvements have led to a continuous decline in the total cost of pig farming, which reached 11.6 yuan/kg in September, down 1.5 yuan/kg from January [2]. - In the meat processing segment, the company slaughtered 19.16 million pigs from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 140%, with a capacity utilization rate of 88%. The meat processing business achieved profitability in Q3 [2]. Production Metrics - As of September 2025, the company achieved a weaning-to-market survival rate of 93%, with overall survival rates around 87%. The pigs' daily weight gain was approximately 880g, and the feed-to-meat ratio during the fattening phase was around 2.64 [2]. - Over 80% of the company's output comes from production lines with costs below 12 yuan/kg, and about 25% from lines below 11 yuan/kg. The best-performing lines can achieve costs as low as 10.5 yuan/kg [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to generate revenues of 124.852 billion yuan, 126.801 billion yuan, and 139.943 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 16.701 billion yuan, 17.935 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 16, 15, and 11 times respectively. The company is viewed positively for its cost control and long-term development potential, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].