兴业研究：2025Q3全球黄金供需状况及黄金税收新政影响分析

Global Gold Supply - In Q3 2025, the total global gold supply increased by 37.1 tons, a year-on-year rise of 2.90%, with balanced growth in mine production and recycled gold [3][9] - Mine production grew by 19.0 tons year-on-year, while producer net hedging decreased by 1.5 tons, continuing a downward trend after a brief increase in Q1 [3][9] - Global recycled gold volume increased by 19.6 tons, marking two consecutive quarters of positive growth [3] Global Gold Demand - In Q3 2025, global gold demand (excluding OTC and others) rose by 64.1 tons year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased compared to the previous quarter [9][10] - Demand for gold ETFs and gold bar investments continued to show positive growth, while jewelry demand saw an expanded decline [9][10] - Central bank gold purchases increased both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with notable purchases from countries like Kazakhstan, Turkey, China, Czech Republic, and Ghana [13] Tax Policy Impact - A new tax policy regarding gold, effective from November 1, 2025, distinguishes between investment and non-investment uses, implementing differentiated tax policies for members and non-members [2][10] - Non-investment gold purchases will see increased tax costs, while the impact on investment gold through member channels is relatively limited [10][12] - The new policy is expected to drive gold investment towards exchanges, enhancing the influence of benchmark gold prices and benefiting banks and exchange members' gold investment products [12]