美国10月ISM制造业PMI连续八个月萎缩，需求和就业疲软，通胀降温

Core Viewpoint - The ISM report indicates that U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October due to declining production and weak demand [1][7]. Manufacturing Activity - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is 48.7, below the expected 49.5 and down from the previous value of 49.1, with 50 being the threshold for expansion [3]. - The new orders index is at 49.4, showing a second consecutive month of decline, although the rate of decline has slowed [4]. - The production index fell by 2.8 points to 48.2, indicating that output has contracted in two of the last three months [5]. Employment and Labor Market - The employment index is at 46, down from 45.3, marking the ninth consecutive month of contraction in employment [5]. - Companies are focusing on layoffs rather than hiring to manage labor costs amid uncertainty in demand [6]. Price and Inflation Indicators - The prices paid index is at 58, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, indicating a reduction in inflationary pressures [5][8]. - This index has decreased nearly 12 points since the peak following the implementation of tariff policies in April [5]. Supply Chain and Inventory - The ISM supplier deliveries index has risen to a four-month high, suggesting extended delivery times [6]. - Manufacturers are experiencing the largest decline in inventory levels in a year, with low customer inventory levels indicating potential future order increases [6]. Industry Sentiment - The manufacturing sector is facing a generally pessimistic sentiment, with concerns over trade policy uncertainty impacting business confidence [7][9]. - Consumer goods manufacturers' confidence has dropped to a two-year low due to worries about domestic spending and declining sales in export markets [10]. Economic Data Reliance - Due to the government shutdown, economists and policymakers are increasingly relying on private reports like the ISM survey to assess economic and labor market conditions [11].