IC平台：美联储内部现降息分歧，米兰主张宽松同僚谨慎

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the future adjustments of interest rates following two consecutive rate cuts, with some members advocating for larger cuts while others express concerns about rapid policy easing [2]. Group 1: Milan's Easing Stance and Rationale - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan has repeatedly voiced concerns about the current monetary policy being too tight, opposing the decision to cut rates by only 25 basis points in September and October, advocating instead for a 50 basis point cut [3]. - Milan believes that the current policy rate is significantly above the neutral level, which may excessively restrict economic activity [3]. - He expresses confidence in the decline of inflation, suggesting that there is no need to maintain high interest rates [4]. - Milan highlights signs of stress in the credit market, indicating that monetary policy may negatively impact the corporate financing environment [4]. - He warns that maintaining a restrictive policy for too long could increase the risk of an economic recession [4]. Group 2: Cautious Attitudes of Other Officials - In contrast to Milan's aggressive stance, several policymakers, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, adopt a more cautious approach, emphasizing concerns about inflation over labor market issues [5]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggests keeping an open mind regarding a rate cut in December, stressing the need to balance inflation control with employment support [5]. - This divergence reflects differences in interpreting economic data, with summer hiring slowdowns raising concerns about the labor market [5][6]. - There remains uncertainty about whether inflation will continue to decline [6]. Group 3: Policy Background and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% in October, marking the second consecutive rate cut following September's decision [7]. - Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that a further rate cut in December is not guaranteed, indicating that decisions will depend on subsequent economic data [7]. - Milan's transition from the White House to the Federal Reserve has led to discussions about potential political influences on his policy proposals, although he consistently argues from an economic fundamentals perspective, citing objective indicators like "credit market pressure" [7].