Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has surpassed the 100 mark for the first time since August 1, driven by factors such as the tapering of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [1][1]. Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - As of November 4, the dollar index reached 100.0351, reflecting a daily increase of 0.16% [1][1]. - The recent rise in the dollar index is attributed to the market's changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - According to a report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the risk of changes in the pace of interest rate cuts is real, contributing to the dollar's rebound towards its high points from the second half of the year [1][1]. - CICC does not anticipate a significant rebound in the dollar due to the lack of supporting economic data, which limits the Federal Reserve's ability to confirm the end of the rate cut cycle [1][1]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The market's shift away from fully pricing in a December rate cut indicates that the dollar's continued rebound may face challenges [1][1]. - Prolonged government shutdowns could have lasting impacts on the US economy and employment, potentially leading to a reevaluation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline [1][1]. - Overall, the dollar's range-bound movement in the second half of the year remains unchanged [1][1].
美元指数升破100关口 为8月1日来首次