黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.11.4）

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing short-term pressure due to diverging Federal Reserve policies and a government shutdown, while long-term support factors remain intact, indicating a pause in the upward trend rather than a collapse [2][3]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Short-term pressures are primarily caused by increasing divisions within the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from nearly 100% to 65.3% after Powell's comments [2]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a halt in key economic data releases, pushing the dollar index to a three-month high and suppressing gold prices [2]. - Additional negative factors include China's termination of tax exemptions for certain gold retailers, which weakens physical demand, and a surge in U.S. corporate bond issuance that diverts funds and raises U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2: Long-term Support Logic - Key factors such as global geopolitical risks, rising inflation, and central bank gold purchases have not changed, suggesting that the recent pause in gold price increases is temporary [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, after reaching 4381 in mid-October, gold faced significant pullback, but the pace of decline is slowing, indicating a potential for stabilization [5]. - In the four-hour chart, gold initially dipped before recovering, with key resistance levels identified at 4030/4031 and 4046, while support is noted at 3962 [7].