旺季刚需和产线端影响为玻璃价格托底

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with high inventory levels and weak downstream demand putting downward pressure on prices, despite some recent improvements in sales due to price reductions [1][2]. Inventory and Supply-Demand Dynamics - After the "Eleventh" holiday, glass inventory surged by 3.49 million heavy boxes, reaching 62.82 million heavy boxes, a year-on-year increase of 28.85% [1] - The average order days for deep processing enterprises in the glass industry decreased by 16.1% year-on-year to 10.8 days, indicating weak demand [1] - The current inventory days have increased to 28 days, contributing to the pressure on glass prices [1] Price Trends and Market Reactions - The average transaction price for large glass in the Shahe region dropped from approximately 1220 yuan/ton to 1113 yuan/ton, while prices in Hubei fell from 1160-1230 yuan/ton to 1040-1110 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of over 100 yuan/ton overall [2] - Recent price reductions have stimulated demand from downstream buyers, leading to improved sales rates and a significant increase in production and sales [2] Policy and Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has shifted positively due to expectations of policy support for the real estate sector, with a narrowing decline in new construction and completion rates reported by the National Bureau of Statistics [2] - The trading volume for the glass futures contract increased to 1.81 million lots, indicating heightened market activity and a potential reversal in price trends [2] Future Outlook - The glass industry is facing uncertainties, particularly regarding the sustainability of demand and the impact of macroeconomic changes [5] - The upcoming peak season in November may provide some demand support, but the overall market remains dependent on capacity reduction to address excess supply [8] - The potential for increased production costs due to changes in energy sourcing in the Shahe region could further influence market dynamics [7]