美国正走向“流动性危机”，“政府关门”相当于加息？下一步对市场至关重要

Core Viewpoint - The United States is facing a severe liquidity crisis, exacerbated by the government shutdown, which is draining market liquidity and creating conditions similar to multiple interest rate hikes, but this situation may set the stage for a rebound in risk assets by year-end [1][12][13]. Group 1: Liquidity Crisis Indicators - Key financing indicators show that market pressure has reached a critical point, with the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) usage hitting $14.75 billion, the second-highest since its establishment, and a record high of $50.35 billion reached the previous week [1]. - The liquidity crunch is primarily driven by the government shutdown, which has forced the Treasury to increase its cash balance from $300 billion to $1 trillion over the past three months, significantly draining market liquidity [3][12]. - The overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) surged by 22 basis points to 4.22% on October 31, widening the spread to the Federal Reserve's excess reserve rate to 32 basis points, the highest since March 2020 [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Despite the anticipated stabilization of liquidity post-month-end, key indicators remain at alarmingly high levels, indicating that the liquidity tightness is not solely driven by technical factors [9]. - Analysts suggest that the government shutdown has effectively acted as a series of interest rate hikes, with the Treasury's cash balance rising dramatically, leading to a significant liquidity drain [12][13]. - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict that the government shutdown may end within two weeks, potentially releasing thousands of billions of dollars back into the market, which could trigger a massive buying spree in risk assets [6][18]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The release of liquidity upon the government's reopening could lead to a significant rebound in risk-sensitive assets, similar to the scenario observed in early 2021 [14][15]. - The market is currently positioned for a potential surge in assets like Bitcoin and small-cap stocks, especially as the year-end approaches [15]. - Goldman Sachs estimates a 50% probability that the government will reopen by mid-November, with various pathways to resolution being considered [18].