美联储鹰鸽激辩！12月降息悬念升级，官员们到底在吵什么？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials are expressing conflicting views on the current economic situation and the risks they face, particularly in light of the government shutdown affecting data releases. The debate highlights the potential for interest rate cuts in the upcoming December meeting, but no decisions are finalized yet [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Risks and Policy Debate - Federal Reserve Governor Cook described the current policy debate as a tug-of-war, emphasizing the high risks associated with both employment and inflation, suggesting a possibility of rate cuts in December [2][3]. - Cook noted that maintaining high interest rates could lead to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, although she acknowledged that the labor market remains solid at present [2]. - There is a concern that excessive rate cuts could lead to uncontrolled inflation expectations, but she pointed out that most long-term inflation expectations are currently low and stable [2][3]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among Officials - San Francisco Fed President Daly viewed the recent rate cut as insurance against a weakening labor market and remains open to further actions in December [2][3]. - The comments from Cook and Daly indicate a shift in sentiment within the Federal Reserve, suggesting that the likelihood of a rate cut in December is approximately double that of no cut, aligning with current market pricing [3]. - The recent policy meeting resulted in a 25 basis point cut to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with notable dissent among members regarding the direction of monetary policy [3][4]. Group 3: Individual Perspectives on Rate Cuts - Fed Governor Milan reiterated his support for significant rate cuts, arguing that the current financial market conditions do not justify a tight monetary policy stance [4][5]. - Milan expressed a more optimistic view on inflation compared to his colleagues, suggesting that the Fed's policies are overly restrictive and increasing the risk of economic recession [5]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmidt opposed rate cuts, citing persistent high inflation as a concern, while other regional Fed presidents also expressed caution regarding further rate reductions [6].