马云房价预言会成真？国家一锤定音，这四类人或受影响

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant adjustment, aligning with Jack Ma's prediction that housing prices will become more affordable, akin to the price of green onions [1][3]. Market Trends - In the first half of this year, the national sales area of commercial housing was 479 million square meters, a substantial year-on-year decrease of 19% [3]. - The sales revenue dropped to 4.71 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 25% [3]. - As of July 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 14,653 yuan per square meter, continuing a trend of month-on-month declines for 27 consecutive months [3]. Government Policies - Since 2016, the government has implemented numerous measures to cool the overheated real estate market, including purchase restrictions, loan limits, and increased mortgage rates [5]. - In 2021 alone, there were 650 regulatory measures targeting the real estate market, marking a pivotal year for the sector [5]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has announced plans for a "major adjustment" in the real estate market starting in 2024, focusing on controlling price increases, optimizing supply-demand relationships, and enhancing financial regulation [7]. Impact on Stakeholders - Speculative investors, or "炒房客," are facing significant challenges as the market enters a prolonged adjustment phase, with many unable to divest from multiple properties amid falling prices [10]. - Real estate developers are under severe pressure due to high debt levels, with many exceeding an 80% debt ratio, leading to restricted financing options and potential liquidity crises [12]. - Second-hand property owners are struggling to sell their homes, with increasing listings making it difficult to achieve sales without significant price reductions of 20% to 30% [12]. - Local governments and related industries are also affected, as declining real estate activity impacts land finance revenues, necessitating a shift away from reliance on the real estate sector [14].