财经早餐：金价4000关口静待经济数据定方向，美油持稳于61附近

Market Overview - Gold prices are trading around $3995 per ounce, with a stable performance around the $4000 mark, as investors await upcoming U.S. ADP employment data and ISM PMI [1][8] - U.S. crude oil is trading at approximately $60.95 per barrel, with prices stabilizing due to multiple factors, including OPEC+'s production increase decision and the support from a planned pause in production [1][9] Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.48% to 47336.68 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.17% to 6851.97 points, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.46% to 23834.72 points [4] - The technology sector drove market gains, with Amazon's $38 billion deal with OpenAI boosting its stock by 4%, and Nvidia's stock rising by 2.2% due to comments on chip export restrictions [4][5] - The S&P 500 saw 83% of its companies exceed earnings expectations during the third-quarter earnings season [6] Economic Indicators - The market is in a wait-and-see mode, focusing on the potential implications of upcoming economic data on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate cuts [8][13] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has led to a significant decrease in the probability of another cut in December, from nearly 100% to 65.3% [8][13] Commodity Market - Gold prices have seen a strong performance this year, up 53%, but are currently in a consolidation phase, which is typical after significant increases [8] - In the precious metals market, silver and platinum prices have declined, while palladium has seen a slight increase [8] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices are stabilizing amid OPEC+'s decision to slightly increase production in December while planning a full pause in early 2024, which has been interpreted as a balancing act in the market [9][11] - Morgan Stanley has raised its Brent crude price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $57.50 to $60 per barrel, reflecting the anticipated supply dynamics [11] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar has strengthened against the euro, reaching a three-month high, influenced by shifting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [13][14] - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of key economic data, increasing uncertainty in the market [13] International Developments - The U.S. Treasury has lowered its borrowing estimate for the current quarter due to higher-than-expected cash balances, projecting net borrowing of $569 billion [14] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 34th day, nearing the record for the longest shutdown, impacting various federal programs [15]