程强：市场震荡反弹，红利与微盘领涨

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight rebound with reduced trading volume, while commodity indices rose, particularly with soybean meal increasing over 4% [1][10]. Stock Market Analysis - The stock market showed a rebound with reduced trading volume, led by the dividend and micro盘 indices. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52 points, up 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.19% to 13404.06 points. The ChiNext Index initially dropped about 2% but ended up 0.29% at 3196.87 points. The total market turnover was 2.13 trillion yuan, down 9.2% from the previous trading day, but still above 2 trillion yuan [2][4]. - The market style exhibited a rotation between high and low sectors. The Hainan Free Trade Port concept surged by 4.25%, driven by new tax policies and expectations for full island closure in 2026. The nuclear power sector also saw gains due to the acceleration of fourth-generation nuclear technology commercialization, with indices rising by 4.23% [4][7]. Bond Market Analysis - The bond market showed weak fluctuations, with the 30-year main contract closing at 116.51 yuan, down 0.11%. The 10-year contract slightly increased by 0.01% to 108.680 yuan, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts fell by 0.01% and 0.03%, respectively [8][9]. - The central bank conducted a 783 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a rate of 1.40%. Despite a significant net withdrawal of 2590 billion yuan, market liquidity remained ample, with short-term interest rates declining [8][9]. Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity index rose, with agricultural products showing strength while energy and black metals were weaker. The South China commodity index closed at 2542.22 points, up 0.13%. Soybean meal futures surged by 4.23% to 2491 yuan/ton, driven by supply-demand mismatches [10][11]. - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, maintaining strength due to anticipated supply tightening and high demand growth in battery production, with the closing price at 82280 yuan/ton [11]. Trading Hotspots - Recent hot sectors include artificial intelligence, nuclear fusion, domestic chips, and consumer goods, driven by increased capital expenditure from global tech giants and domestic policy support [12][14]. Core Thoughts Summary - The market is entering a policy and performance vacuum, with major indices expected to fluctuate. A balanced allocation is recommended, with continued focus on technology sectors and the new directions outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [14]. - The bond market is expected to remain loose in the short term, with potential support from the central bank's actions [14]. - In the commodity sector, the value of precious metals is becoming more apparent post-Fed rate cuts, suggesting a gradual build-up in positions [14].