SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) 智通财经网·2025-11-04 03:50Core Insights - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that non-member jewelry enterprises face increased profit pressure in the short term, while member enterprises of the Shanghai Gold Exchange are relatively less affected. In the long term, industry concentration is expected to increase, with brands possessing pricing power showing stronger performance resilience [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - Starting from November 1, 2025, a differentiated VAT management system will be implemented for standard gold transactions through the Shanghai Gold and Futures Exchanges, exempting the selling party from VAT during the transaction phase [1]. - The new policy allows for "immediate collection and refund" for investment gold used for investment purposes, while non-investment gold will be exempt from VAT and can be taxed at a 6% deduction rate [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shift in tax policy is expected to lead to a significant decline in non-exchange investment gold demand, benefiting top-tier enterprises with membership in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, such as Caibai Co., China Gold, and Lao Feng Xiang [2]. - Non-member jewelry brands, which rely heavily on member suppliers for raw materials, will face increased VAT burdens, leading to short-term profit pressure. However, the long-term outlook suggests that demand concentration may boost sales for leading enterprises as smaller firms exit the market [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies with Shanghai Gold Exchange membership and investment gold operations are likely to benefit from the trend towards market concentration [1]. - Jewelry enterprises with a growing proportion of fixed-price gold products and stable high-end customer bases may present short-term investment opportunities due to potential market corrections [1].