【午评】超3700股飘绿，资金涌向何处？最新操盘策略来了

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a "defensive leading, growth under pressure" trend, while the Hong Kong market remains stable, driven by energy and financial stocks, indicating a significant divergence in market dynamics between the two regions [1][2]. Market Overview - A-share indices experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% to 3969.05 points, and over 3700 stocks in the market fell, reflecting a decrease in profitability despite high trading activity with a half-day turnover of 1.23 trillion yuan [2]. - The Hong Kong market showed relative resilience, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.20% to 26210.51 points, supported by energy and financial sectors, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.20% due to divergence within tech stocks [2]. Sector Analysis - In the A-share market, defensive sectors are highlighted, with the banking sector rising 2.04% driven by stable interest margins and resilient earnings, making it a preferred choice for long-term capital allocation [3]. - The coal sector continued its strong performance with a 22.83% quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit, supported by OPEC+ production pause, enhancing energy price expectations [3]. - The tourism and hotel sector showed positive movement due to expectations of consumption subsidies and the winter travel peak [3]. - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals sector fell 2.24%, impacted by weakened global industrial demand and a stronger dollar, while the power equipment sector dropped 1.83% due to ongoing price declines in storage and photovoltaic components [3]. - In the Hong Kong market, the energy sector, particularly oil stocks, continued to rise, with Morgan Stanley raising the short-term target price for Brent crude oil to $60 per barrel [3]. - The financial sector, particularly domestic banks, showed strong performance with better-than-expected profit growth in Q3, while tech stocks displayed mixed results, with some AI applications benefiting from commercialization [3]. Investment Recommendations - The current market is at a crossroads of "policy window" and "earnings verification," suggesting a balanced layout across technology growth, cyclical resources, and policy-driven sectors [4]. - Focus on technology growth sectors with performance certainty and industry catalysts, particularly in AI and high-end manufacturing [4]. - For cyclical and resource sectors, look for opportunities in profit recovery, especially in gold and copper, while benefiting from "de-involution" policies in the chemical sector [4]. - Policy-driven opportunities should align with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and domestic demand stimulation, particularly in AI, high-end manufacturing, and consumer goods [5]. - Overall, the market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, recommending a core allocation in "banking + energy" alongside technology growth and policy-sensitive sectors [5].