大行评级丨瑞银：黄金增值税调整令短期需求承压，长远促进珠宝零售行业整合

Core Viewpoint - UBS indicates that China's adjustment of the gold value-added tax (VAT) deduction policy aims to centralize regulation of investment product demand, with reduced liquidity potentially driving some demand towards gold ETFs [1] Group 1: Impact on Investment Demand - The increase in VAT will exert pressure on recent gold product demand and reduce the arbitrage opportunities between investment and non-investment demand, such as converting gold bars into jewelry [1] - The tightening of regulatory scrutiny is expected to lead to further market consolidation, with consumers likely shifting from smaller shops to larger brands [1] Group 2: Effects on Jewelry Consumption - UBS believes that the new 7% tax will be passed on to consumers, impacting the jewelry consumption sector regardless of whether sales occur through direct or franchise channels [1] - Short-term demand for Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook may face pressure, but both companies are expected to further consolidate the market in the long term [1] Group 3: Financial Implications for Companies - Assuming the VAT refund rate decreases from 13% to 6%, Lao Pu Gold's gross margin is estimated to face a pressure of 3 to 4 percentage points; however, the company raised prices by over 20% recently, which may offset some of the impact [1] - Chow Tai Fook has recently increased the prices of weighted gold products by 5%, transferring the gross margin pressure onto consumers [1]