美股2026年度策略 ｜ 高处如何布局？

Group 1: Market Overview - The liquidity easing trend is expected to continue until the first half of 2026, with a focus on cyclical economic recovery in the second half of the year [1][5] - The U.S. stock market has experienced a K-shaped divergence, with the MAG7 companies contributing significantly to market capitalization growth [2][6] - As of October 31, 2025, the MAG7 companies accounted for over 30% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization, contributing nearly 50% of the market's expansion since 2023 [6][10] Group 2: Technology Sector Analysis - The current technology market is reminiscent of the late 1990s, with a concentration on high-quality large-cap stocks, raising concerns about potential market bubbles [3][22] - The EPS growth contribution from top tech stocks has been substantial, with MAG7's EPS growth reaching 24.7% [23][34] - Speculative trading has increased, with leverage in the stock market nearing levels seen during the 2020 QE period [34][35] Group 3: Economic Projections - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain a K-shaped divergence, but the driving factors may become more balanced compared to the past [4][57] - Bloomberg forecasts a 13.7% EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 2026, with a slowdown in capital expenditure growth for MAG7 [57][59] - Traditional economic recovery is anticipated to accelerate, supported by reduced trade policy uncertainty and monetary easing [57][63] Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on profitable leading companies in the tech sector while gradually increasing exposure to cyclical sectors as the year progresses [5][64] - Historical data suggests that cyclical sectors tend to perform well after the end of a rate-cutting cycle, with significant positive returns expected [64][66] - Global diversification is recommended, with particular attention to developed markets like Germany and Switzerland, and emerging markets such as Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and India [65][67]