报告：当前全国平均住房断供率为3.7% 较2022年已翻倍

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is facing significant pressures on both supply and demand sides, with rising mortgage default rates and ongoing challenges for property developers [1] Demand Side - The national average mortgage default rate has increased to 3.7%, up from 1.6% in 2022, with some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 5% [1] - Factors contributing to this trend include declining employment quality and falling property prices, with some properties losing value below their loan balances [1] - The market for auctioned properties remains high, with 170,000 residential properties listed for auction in the first half of 2025, unchanged from the previous year, while transaction volume decreased by 2.3% to 51,000 units [1] - The average transaction price for auctioned properties is 8,817 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.8%, with a slight increase in the discount rate [1] Supply Side - Property developers continue to face severe debt issues, with overall financing scales contracting [1] - A peak in debt maturities is approaching, leading to accelerated debt restructuring efforts [1] - Since 2025, there has been a notable increase in debt restructuring among property developers, particularly for overseas debts, characterized by higher debt reduction ratios, extended maturity periods, and lower coupon rates [1] - Debt-to-equity swaps are gradually becoming a primary tool for property developers to manage their debts [1]