国金证券：OPEC+明年一季度暂停增产提振市场情绪 但供应过剩现实仍在

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in Q1 2026 due to seasonal factors, which has boosted market sentiment but does not change the reality of expected oversupply in H1 2026 [1][2] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Insights - By April 2025, OPEC+ is expected to have increased production by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day, with actual increases reaching 2.11 million barrels per day by the end of September, leaving a potential increase of 800,000 barrels per day [1] - The market anticipates a supply surplus of between 190,000 to 300,000 barrels per day in 2026, influenced by seasonal demand weakness in Q1 [1][3] Group 2: Geopolitical and Supply Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly movements in Venezuela and Nigeria, could lead to actual supply losses, potentially altering the oversupply expectations for 2026 [3] - The increase in non-OPEC supply, particularly from North America, Brazil, and Guyana, continues to rise, which may limit OPEC+'s ability to cut production effectively [2][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Recommendations - The market's long-term oil price expectations remain strong, with potential shifts in supply-demand balance depending on domestic strategic reserve replenishment and geopolitical risks [5] - The oil and gas engineering service sector is expected to see continued recovery, particularly in offshore projects, as they represent the lowest cost for new marginal capacity [5]