【百利好黄金专题】避险情绪降温 金价深度回调

Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky's visit to the White House did not yield a positive response from the Trump administration, while several European countries expressed support for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, indicating a gradual easing of geopolitical tensions [1] - Zelensky revealed that a ceasefire plan is expected to be developed with allies within seven to ten days, further reinforcing expectations of a de-escalation in the situation [1] - On the trade front, a meeting between the leaders of the two major economies in South Korea resulted in optimistic outcomes, with both sides agreeing to pause certain export control measures for one year, leading to a rapid decrease in global trade risks [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, aligning with market expectations, but Chairman Powell's cautious remarks indicated a more hawkish stance regarding future rate cuts [3] - Following the Fed's announcement, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 4%, and market expectations for a December rate cut dropped from over 90% to around 67%, highlighting increased uncertainty regarding further easing [3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown complicates the decision-making environment, contributing to the pressure on non-yielding assets like gold [3] Group 3 - Gold prices have surged significantly this year, driven by geopolitical and trade tensions, with the underlying logic being a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar [4] - Concerns over the Trump administration's tariff policies have led to a shift in global reserves from U.S. dollars to gold, while major economies are promoting non-dollar settlements in international trade [4] - The rising U.S. debt levels have diminished the perception of U.S. Treasuries as the safest global asset, with expectations of increased borrowing post-government shutdown, maintaining long-term depreciation pressure on the dollar and supporting gold's investment value [4] - Despite short-term cooling of risk aversion potentially leading to price corrections, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with technical analysis suggesting potential upward movement if certain support levels hold [4]