山西焦煤(000983)季报点评：煤价回暖业绩环比提升 反内卷背景下业绩修复在即

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices, but anticipates a recovery in Q4 as coal prices begin to rise again [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 27.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.43 billion yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.1 billion yuan, a decline of 20.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 420 million yuan, down 52.2% year-on-year but up 26.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Coal Price Dynamics - The decline in performance is attributed to a significant drop in coal prices, with the average price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port falling to 1,240 yuan/ton in June 2025, a decrease of 39.8% year-on-year [1] - Starting from June 2025, coking coal prices began to rise, reaching 1,698 yuan/ton by the end of October, an increase of 458 yuan/ton from June [1] Group 3: Pricing Strategy - The company has shifted to a monthly pricing model for coking coal, which allows it to better benefit from rising coal prices compared to the previous quarterly long-term contracts [1] - The Shanxi coking coal long-term contract index was reported at 1,125 yuan/ton in October, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 49 yuan/ton and a significant rise from 896 yuan/ton in July [1] Group 4: Future Prospects - The company is currently developing coal and associated resource exploration in the Lüliang Xing County block, with a designed capacity of 8 million tons/year, which is expected to provide incremental growth [2] - As a listed platform under the Shanxi Coking Coal Group, there is potential for future asset injections related to coking coal [2] Group 5: Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 36 billion, 37.2 billion, and 39.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -20.45%, +3.30%, and +7.03% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.961 billion, 2.334 billion, and 2.897 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year changes of -36.89%, +18.98%, and +24.14% respectively [2]