日元跌近155关口，高盛、美银：干预时机未到，红线在160左右！

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is approaching the critical 155 level against the US dollar, raising speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities, but major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America believe immediate intervention is unlikely as current conditions do not meet the usual criteria for action [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The yen depreciated approximately 4% against the dollar in October, making it the worst-performing currency among G-10 currencies [1]. - As of Tuesday, the yen fell further to 154.48, driven by market interpretations of Prime Minister Kishida's inclination towards fiscal expansion and dovish monetary policy [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs and Bank of America suggest that the yen's recent weakness is primarily due to the repricing of Japan's fiscal risk premium and adjustments in short-term interest rate expectations [4]. Group 2: Intervention Triggers - Goldman Sachs indicates that intervention likelihood will significantly increase only when the USD/JPY exchange rate reaches the 161-162 range, while Bank of America suggests a meaningful policy response may occur if the rate tests 158 [1][4]. - Historical context shows that the last intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance occurred in 2024, with intervention levels around 157.99 to 161.76 [4]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Bank of America maintains a year-end forecast of 155 for the exchange rate but notes an increased risk of the rate overshooting to 160 by Q4 2025 [5]. - Goldman Sachs expects the yen to gradually appreciate as hedging costs decrease and the dollar weakens, with potential acceleration if US labor market data worsens [6]. - However, there are warnings that unexpected fiscal stimulus measures from Japan or stronger-than-expected US economic performance could undermine expectations for yen appreciation [7].