Shopify(US:SHOP) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-04 07:03Core Viewpoint - Shopify is expected to report third-quarter earnings with revenue projected at $2.73 billion, up from $2.16 billion year-over-year, and earnings per share anticipated at $0.26, down from $0.66 the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The total gross merchandise volume (GMV) is expected to grow by 28%, reaching $89.12 billion [1] - Deutsche Bank predicts a 27% increase in GMV, compared to a 30% increase in the same period last year [2] - Analysts expect revenue growth around 20% and gross profit growth around 20% for the fourth quarter, with GAAP operating expenses as a percentage of revenue around 30% [2] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - Shopify's stock price has risen following its partnership with OpenAI for "Instant Checkout," indicating potential benefits from advancements in AI and smart commerce [2] - The company is actively expanding its platform to attract larger enterprise clients, with notable partnerships including Starbucks and Miele [2] - Feedback from partners suggests strong market share growth in the enterprise customer segment, with expectations of surpassing competitors in new customer acquisition [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Holiday Season Outlook - Investors are looking for initial guidance for the fourth quarter as an indicator of holiday consumer trends and Shopify's ability to maintain growth compared to a weak performance last year [2] - Despite macroeconomic concerns, Shopify's stock has increased over 60% this year, driven by accelerated revenue growth and increased GMV share [2] - Analysts anticipate optimistic fourth-quarter guidance, supported by AI-driven efficiency improvements and cost control measures [2]